| Title | : | Russia 2010: And What It Means for the World |
| Author | : | |
| Rating | : | |
| ISBN | : | 0679759220 |
| ISBN-10 | : | 9780679759225 |
| Language | : | English |
| Format Type | : | Paperback |
| Number of Pages | : | 352 |
| Publication | : | First published January 1, 1993 |
This brilliant and visionary book, which is based on a confidential report by the international consulting firm CERA, offers several persuasively detailed scenarios of Russia's future. Using the management technique of "scenario planning" and drawing on an extensive knowledge of Russia's political and economic history, Daniel Yergin and Thane Gustafson have produced a study that is already shaping the investment strategies of major corporations and that will become an essential text in the policy debates about the next century. Russia 2010 captures in a timely way the changes shaking Russia and the former Soviet Union after Communism. The result is one of those rare books that not only predict the future but have the power to change it.
Russia 2010: And What It Means for the World Reviews
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Все чаще приходится вспоминать эту книгу, которая произвела на меня очень большое впечатление в начале 90х - и во многом подготовила к тому, что было позже. Чуваки, как оказалось, ебаные гении - с поправками на то, чем они занимались и для чего делали свои прогнозы. На русском она тоже есть и продается до сих пор - правда, я не знаю, что там с переводом. Сценарий, который у них назывался "Русский медведь", из всех предложенных казался самым, конечно, кошмарным. Судите, впрочем, сами, насколько реальность сейчас превзошла его.
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This book offers Russia's possible futures given the Soviet Union's collapse. At the time of 2010's publishing (1994), Russia was reeling from its own implosion and the rebellion of some of its former Soviet satellites. Twenty years later (2014) 2010 is even more interesting since Russia has embraced a form of rule at odds with the liberal elements of society seeking freedom of the press, artistic expression, and a more democratic government. Vladimir Putin seems bent on maintaining a powerful centralized government and limiting the reforms and rights of its citizens. These democratic elements are two generations removed from the absolute rule of the Communist Party. 2010 is worth reading just to compare Yergin's forecast with what actually happened.
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This book was written at 1994 and authors tried to forecast a bunch of possible scenarios for Russia in 2010 on the way of building of "Capitalism Russian-Style". Even on base of very short observation period after collapse of Soviet Union, the authors was able to make sound variants of future events.
In overall, yes, forecast is fulfilled. And we (readers) can expect from authors for review of 1994-2010 period with analysis of what happened and what not.
Very interesting and detailed book with demonstration of approach of formulating and reasoning possible scenarios. -
Though not nearly as epic as "The Prize" it's an interesting read on how things were predicted in 1993 and then knowing what we know today how Russia has turned out.
