| Title | : | The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations |
| Author | : | |
| Rating | : | |
| ISBN | : | 1594206430 |
| ISBN-10 | : | 9781594206436 |
| Format Type | : | Hardcover |
| Number of Pages | : | 512 |
| Publication | : | First published September 15, 2020 |
Named Energy Writer of the Year for The New Map by the American Energy Society
Pulitzer Prize-winning author and global energy expert, Daniel Yergin offers a revelatory new account of how energy revolutions, climate battles, and geopolitics are mapping our future
The world is being shaken by the collision of energy, climate change, and the clashing power of nations in a time of global crisis. Out of this tumult is emerging a new map of energy and geopolitics. The "shale revolution" in oil and gas has transformed the American economy, ending the "era of shortage" but introducing a turbulent new era. Almost overnight, the United States has become the world's number one energy powerhouse. Yet concern about energy's role in climate change is challenging the global economy and way of life, accelerating a second energy revolution in the search for a low-carbon future. All of this has been made starker and more urgent by the coronavirus pandemic and the economic dark age that it has wrought.
World politics is being upended, as a new cold war develops between the United States and China, and the rivalry grows more dangerous with Russia, which is pivoting east toward Beijing. Vladimir Putin and China's Xi Jinping are converging both on energy and on challenging American leadership, as China projects its power and influence in all directions. The South China Sea, claimed by China and the world's most critical trade route, could become the arena where the United States and China directly collide. The map of the Middle East, which was laid down after World War I, is being challenged by jihadists, revolutionary Iran, ethnic and religious clashes, and restive populations. But the region has also been shocked by the two recent oil price collapses--and by the very question of oil's future in the rest of this century.
A master storyteller and global energy expert, Daniel Yergin takes the reader on an utterly riveting and timely journey across the world's new map. He illuminates the great energy and geopolitical questions in an era of rising political turbulence and points to the profound challenges that lie ahead.
The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations Reviews
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The New Map is a topical, and most certainly not a seminal, recounting today's global energy sector. Some versions of similar industry studies are produced in multitudes daily around the global investment industry. Compared to those reports, the book has a few differences, most relatively minor:
The book spends a lot of time providing its own perspective on global geopolitical events, with oil and gas/energy considerations as the drivers. Even in 2020, the author believes that energy equations make and break the superpowers, and whatever the big nations do is to enhance their energy security.
The view is excessively US-centric and US-biased. The book's tone is completely different while talking about certain American developments or US-affecting situations - say the Shale industry, the natural gas trade, or even the climate-related drivers. The tone is different while discussing or forecasting the opposite - for example, history or personalities or the future of Russia, China, or the Middle Eastern nations that are US adversaries.
The author shies away from radical medium-term forecasts. He discusses the environment, Autotech, and alternate energy source industries. However, the author presents no strong arguments, except beliefs based on the last hundred years history, that coal, oil, and gas usage will remain more or less on the same path for decades to come despite the climate concerns and technology changes.
Similarly, the near-term forecasts are equally superficial and based on patchy assumptions. The author is too quick in dismissing any significant changes from the Covid fallouts.
The book's best parts are about the US fracking industry. The author is a brilliant writer. He makes the tale flow effortlessly from one topic to the next, traversing the world, and that too spanning almost a century. In his hands, the context of so much we have observed and experienced becomes nothing but oil, shaped by energy moguls and politicians working from the background.
On the negative side, while the author spends more time discussing the long history, almost all of these discussions are perfunctory mentions of significant historical developments that at best suit the context he establishes rather than insightful analysis. The forecasts are too broad-brushed and, once again, without analysis or conclusions that would stay in mind. The discussions on recent events and forecasts for the next few years would likely make the book obsolete for anyone reading after a few quarters (which is what the book has in common with almost all the reports written in the financial market community). -
Вирішила добити увесь нонфікшн, який тягну з літа, почала з “Нової карти світу” Єргіна.
Що можу сказати, це мала бути чудова книга про політичне сьогодення, але потім сталося 24 лютого. Під час читання остаточно усвідомлюєш, що україно-російська війна — справді світова.
У структурі “Нової карти світу” є великі розділи про Америку, Росію, Китай, Близький Схід, розвиток автомобільної промисловості та клімат. Щоб ця книжка знову стала актуальною, недостатньо додати абзац або навіть розділ про Україну. Переписувати потрібно абсолютно все.
Ось беремо Близький Схід — тут не лише про протистояння Ізраїлю з рештою регіону. Тут ще й про послідовно очманілий Іран і ту ж Росію, яка пасеться на клаптиковій ковдрі Сирії.
Або розділ про клімат, де йдеться про зменшення споживання енергоресурсів (що може бути актуальніше для Європи) і згадується ядерна безпека (в той час, як на ЗАЕС стоїть важке озброєння).
По суті, повномасштабне російське вторгнення нагадує тектонічну плиту, яка з’їхала в одному місті, і викликала зсуви по всьому світу. Відкрита агресія провокує адекватну частину світу на посилення захисту, а неадекватну — на підігрування агресору і на мавпування його дій у своїх регіонах (згадаймо Китай і Тайвань).
Словом, якщо ви готові сприймати цю книгу, як історичну довідку — спробуйте прочитати. Для базового розуміння ситуації буде достатньо. Хоча мені важко було стримуватися щоразу, коли автор припускав, що Росія *банулася не до кінця і з нею можна комунікувати про політичні "інтереси" та "ролі" на карті світу. -
Parts of this are very good (the energy stuff, as you would expect). Other parts I skimmed, and then the book came due at the library. Overall, 2.5 stars -- but the good stuff is worth picking up the library copy for. Reads more like a collxn of magazine articles than a book!
I do have notes, and will try to get them written up before I forget the context.
PS 8/31/21: didn't happen. -
Pulitzer Prize-winning author and global energy expert, Daniel Yergin offers a revelatory new account of how energy revolutions, climate battles, and geopolitics are mapping our future in this, his new book. The world is being shaken by the collision of energy, climate change, and the clashing power of nations in a time of global crisis. The "shale revolution" in oil and gas--made possible by fracking technology, but not without controversy--has transformed the American economy, ending the "era of shortage", but introducing a turbulent new era. Almost overnight, the United States has become the world's number one energy powerhouse--and, during the coronavirus crisis, brokered a tense truce between Russia and Saudi Arabia. Yet concern about energy's role in climate change is challenging our economy and way of life, accelerating a second energy revolution in the search for a low carbon future. All of this has been made starker and urgent by the coronavirus pandemic and the economic Dark Age that it has wrought.
The chessboard of world politics has been upended. A new cold war is emerging with China; and rivalries grow more dangerous with Russia, which is pivoting east toward Beijing. Vladimir Putin and China's Xi Jinping are converging both on energy and on challenging American leadership, as China projects its power and influence in all directions. The South China Sea, claimed by China and the world's most critical trade route, could become the arena where the United States and China collide directly. The map of the Middle East, which was laid down after World War I, is being challenged by jihadists, revolutionary Iran, ethnic and religious clashes, and restive populations. But the region has also been shocked by the two recent oil price collapses--one from the rise of shale, the other the coronavirus--and by the very question of oil's future in the rest of this century.
A master storyteller and global energy expert, Daniel Yergin takes the reader on an utterly riveting and timely journey across the world's "new map". He illuminates the great energy and geopolitical questions on the eve of the historic 2020 Presidential election and the profound challenges that lie ahead. This is a fascinating, accessible and topical book which ruminates on some of the most pressing political, environmental, social and economic issues of our time. Yergin analyses the past few years and uses extrapolation to predict our energy future whilst correcting the shameless optimism promoted by governments and other entities who claim our energy future to be bright. A comprehensive look at the topographical evolution with regard to energy supply that has occurred over the past decade, Yergin, once again, has produced an eminently readable and extensively researched page-turner. Many thanks to Allen Lane for an ARC. -
If you want a clear and concise understanding of the current geopolitical dynamic, Yergin is your guy. As Yergin points out, relationships between China, Russia, the Middle East and the United States all center around one thing; energy. In his latest book, Yergin explains where each of these major players stand today and how their energy needs have altered over the last ten years. Most significantly, Yergin spends a good deal of time explaining the geopolitical and economic implications of the shale boom in the US. These topics take us about 3/4 of the way through the book and makes for a really informative read.
Yergin's weakness (if it can be called that) shows up in the final section that focuses on renewables and alternative energy supplies. That is not to say the chapters are not informative; Yergin illustrates the substantial progress made in each (particularly solar and wind) and the obstacles that still stand in their way. That being said, Yergin doesn't seem to have strong conviction on where these renewables will trend in the coming years, other than to say that energy transformation will be a gradual process. I did appreciate his explanation of the different roads ahead for developed nations vs. developing nations.
Clearly written and well explained for those with no experience in the energy field, 'The New Map' offers an excellent option for readers who want to learn about the recent path and future potential of the energy sector without all the political bullshit. It's refreshing to read a book on current issues that does not present a particular agenda; just information. -
Excellent, detailed overview of energy sources and the power struggle between countries over this vital factor of civilization. The complexity of the Middle East is especially well explained.
One of Yergin's key concluding points is that thermal fuels (coal, natural gas, oil) comprise 80% of all energy and so won't, can't be displaced tomorrow without an exorbitant cost the citizens of most countries are unwilling or unable to pay.
Yergin points out that the qualities of thermal fuels to generate electricity (energy density so no need for large capital to concentrated the energy, reliably available, no need for battery storage (and its associated massive mining), and no need for full-scale replacement baseload backup) are absent in the use of wind, hydropower, and solar. Moreover, the original renewables (wood, dung, charcoal) still in use by up to 3 billion people who don't have electricity and so must burn them inside for heat and cooking are health-damaging, especially due to smoke inhalation and lung infections.
Highly recommended to all non-fiction readers interested in regional political power, large-scale engineering, and energy at the global level. -
Too much is said in this book to capture it all here but my main takeaways are:
1. Energy supply affects a country's decision making and geopolitical security
2. Facts on the ground indicate that there's not going to be an immediate end to hydrocarbons (especially for developing nations)
3. The costs of the world of a China/America standoff are immensely damaging and are difficult to avoid
4. Current and future innovations take a long time to get adopted in the real world
5. Expect turbulence, populism and nationalism in much of the world from excess debt and the rolling back of globalisation.
Overall I really enjoyed the book. A lot of the content is about the history of our energy transition from the lens of different countries. Especially the US, Europe, Russia, China and the Middle East.
The end of the book talks about the current state of carbon capture, electric- and self-driving cars and the future of energy and the mechanics of transitioning to green energy. -
I've read two of Daniel Yergin's previous books about oil and the global energy system:
The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power and
The Quest: Energy, Security, and the Remaking of the Modern World. When I saw
The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations among the library's recent acquisitions, I naturally wanted to read the most recent instalment. Yergin has a highly readable journalistic writing style that creates exciting narratives out of what could be dry geological and/or geopolitical analysis. He is very good at clear explanation and straightforward synthesis. However, this journalistic style also frequently involves personalising technological changes and political trends into a single Pioneering Man, which can get wearing. When that man was Elon Musk I became downright annoyed.
While I've found all three books in Yergin's energy trilogy compelling and learned a great deal from them, the latter two have notable limitations.
The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power is a narrative history of the oil industry and works really well as such.
The Quest: Energy, Security, and the Remaking of the Modern World and
The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations analyse contemporary energy policy and the geopolitics of oil thoroughly, but from a distinctly American perspective. I find Yergin's areas of emphasis interesting, revealing, and frustrating in about equal measure. I didn't really comment on this in my brief 2014 review of
The Quest: Energy, Security, and the Remaking of the Modern World, but can see it in retrospect. This doesn't detract from the value of all three books; they should be read with other commentary so I will offer some recommendations.
The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations is structured around geographical and thematic maps: of Russia, China, the US, the Middle East, mobility, and decarbonisation. It was published recently enough to comment upon the pandemic, which threw energy markets into chaos just as it did everything else. The initial chapters taught me much more about the technical and economic sides of fracking than I previously knew. I hadn't realised the extent to which it transformed the US energy mix. Yergin is dismissive both of the environmental impact of fracking (he briefly states it is less polluting than it used to be) and opposition to it. The former is interesting from a UK perspective - fracking completely failed to take off here, despite Tory governments loving the idea in principle. The latter dismissiveness is focused on pipeline protests, which he frames as pointless because there is already an extensive pipeline network. Yet he inadvertently explains their purpose elsewhere, by explaining infrastructural path dependency. Oil and gas pipelines last for many decades; they cannot readily be repurposed to carry hydrogen. Why build more of them when we need to reduce our fossil fuel consumption as fast as possible? Investing in one more oil or gas pipeline is a refusal to accept the urgent need for decarbonisation.
The geographical sections on China, Russia, and the Middle East are thought-provoking. The chapters on Russia provided some useful context for the Ukraine conflict currently in the news, which is being largely blamed for spiking European energy prices. In the UK, successive government's shameful abrogation of responsibility for energy policy has combined with regional gas shortages to create a rise of more than 50% in average energy bills in two months time. Vulnerable people will undoubtedly die as a result of this. Learning more of the geopolitical context certainly doesn't make the national situation any less enraging. The accounts of recent developments in the Middle East are helpfully wide-ranging. Yergin's commentary on China struck me as more speculative. It provides a helpful insight into how America views China's energy policy and military priorities, though.
The final two thematic sections weren't as directly enlightening for me, as they covered topics I've already read quite a bit about. Their inclusion and tone are both striking nonetheless. The first covers mobility and acknowledges two important things: first, that the system of automobility is extremely energy-intensive and that needs to change if we are to decarbonise. Second, that transport systems predicated upon private car ownership are facing potentially destabilising forces for the first time in fifty years. Neither of these points have been readily acknowledged in energy policy until the last decade, so that's encouraging. Yergin structures his mobility section around technologies: electric cars (featuring the inevitable Elon Musk), autonomous vehicles, ride hailing apps, and (briefly) mobility as a service. I have a lot of my own opinions about these, many of which went into my PhD thesis. Rather than recapitulating that, I will add some further reading suggestions.
New mobility technologies cannot readily be analysed without consideration of behavioural change (which Yergin does acknowledge) or surveillance capitalism (which he doesn't). On the former, I recommend
Peak Car: The Future of Travel and on the latter,
The Age of Surveillance Capitalism: The Fight for a Human Future at the New Frontier of Power. For a wider critique of automobility as a system,
Mobility Justice: The Politics of Movement in an Age of Extremes (2018) is really good and builds upon
Mobilities (2007).
Given its brevity, there are some important areas that Yergin's mobility section can't go into. These include the implications for infrastructure of a transition to electric vehicles (although I liked his comments on limited availability of minerals needed for batteries). Also Uber's bonkers business plan of somehow bankrupting all public transport and then replacing it with their app before investors notice that they've never made any profit. And that autonomous cars would not solve an extant transport problem so much as extend the realm of surveillance capitalism. Anyway, for a long while the transport sector was assumed to be locked into oil dependent individual automobility and thus largely ignored in energy transition literature. At least there is a lot more discussion now, albeit still very much centred upon technological determinism.
The book concludes with a section on the route to zero carbon. The tone and presentation of this are fascinating and I'm honestly torn about how to react. Yergin treats the Paris Agreement and requirement to radically reduce carbon emissions as a fait accompli, something that must simply be assumed. On the one hand, that is a fantastic advance on vague and mealy-mouthed talk of sustainability, clean coal, incrementally reducing energy intensity, etc that amounted to denial and changed nothing. If we take Yergin at face value, oil companies and oil-exporting countries have accepted that fossil fuels are on their way out and are investing in a transition to renewables and hydrogen. He presents decarbonisation as very challenging, yet inevitable.
On the other hand, there is not the slightest acknowledgement of WHY we might want to avert 2 degrees of global warming. Sure it's expensive, but this is the survival of the human species we're talking about! Plenty of other books cover this, to be fair, but neither does Yergin mention the many decades that oil companies spent actively preventing policy action to address climate change. Here are two books about this which I haven't read yet because they'll make me so angry that I won't be able to function:
Losing Earth: A Recent History and
The Discovery of Global Warming. For more general climate change reading I recommend:
This Is Not A Drill: An Extinction Rebellion Handbook,
The Memory We Could Be: Overcoming Fear to Create Our Ecological Future,
The Shock of the Anthropocene: The Earth, History and Us,
The Great Derangement: Climate Change and the Unthinkable, and
Fossil Capital: The Rise of Steam Power and the Roots of Global Warming.
Discussing the route to zero carbon in this partial, ahistorical manner struck me as naive to the point of delusional. As I understand it, petrochemical companies' whole business model is based on letting climate change rip. They have made trillions digging up hydrocarbons and selling them. How can we possibly see them as the solution rather than the problem? And that's without getting into neoliberal capitalism's growth imperatives more generally. It could be cautiously encouraging that an oil expert and well-known energy commentator like Yergin takes decarbonisation for granted and doesn't think it worth mentioning why climate change is bad because everyone already knows. Yet this section discussed the economic costs and employment challenges of moving away from fossil fuels without balancing this with the existential cost of continuing to burn them. Neither did it consider whether a looming catastrophe caused by economic growth and technological change in a capitalist system could be fixed by more economic growth and more technology in the same system. This is sometimes indirectly touched upon, though, in comments like this:The scale of this system is enormous and cannot change overnight. So far, the energy transition has actually been, in the words of energy strategist Atul Arya, 'the phase of energy addition'. Wind and solar have been increasing, but they were doing so atop conventional energy, which was also growing.
Note the use of 'conventional' there. Notwithstanding all my critique, Yergin is an astute analyst of global energy economics and policy and I gained a better understanding of current energy markets and energy geopolitics from
The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations. He isn't writing from an environmentalist perspective because, fundamentally, the energy sector has had a reckless disregard for the environment from its very inception. For me, the final section of the book was less interesting for what it said than how it said it. Perhaps there is no mention of climate catastrophe because this would create jarring cognitive dissonance with the earlier chapters? I still felt that dissonance between where we are and where we need to be, and it was alarming. -
5 stars
اثری بسیار ارزشمند در حوزه تاریخ اقتصادی و سیاسیِ معاصر که خواننده را با مناسبات کنونی سیاسی و اقتصادی حاکم بر دنیا آشنا می کند این اثر این فرصت را به خواننده می دهد تا با تحلیل های علمی و بدون سو گیری که اغلب درگیر آن هستیم به مسائل س��اسی و اموری که موضوع مفهوم قدرت تلقی می شوند، بپردازیم
در بخش های مختلفی نویسنده به آمریکا، روسیه، چین، خاورمیانه و موضوع ایران و همچنین چالش های محیط زیستی می پردازد و با ارائه آمارهای جالب توجه به خواننده کمک می کند که ضمن آشنایی با روش تحلیل در این حوزه با مبانی و مسائل اصول روابط بین الملل با زبانی ساده آشنا شود
خواننده می آموزد که در پس بسیاری از جلساتی که برگزار شده در تاریخ معاصر چه گذشته است و سیاست مداران و کشورهای موثر در عرصه انرژی و اقتصاد، پشت میزهای گفتگو چگونه برای کسب بیشترین نفع و سود برای مردم کشورشان تلاش می کنند -
Yergin's best-known work,
The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power, was a sweeping look at the history of petroleum. It had the good fortune to be published around the time of the First Iraq War, where the threat of a genocidal dictator was on everyone's mind. The Prize is still read and referenced as a grand history of the subject, and so was a belated sequel,
The Quest: Energy, Security, and the Remaking of the Modern World. Full disclosure, I've read and learned from both. I've had high expectations for this, but largely because of the sweep of Yergin's previous work.
The New Map is aimed at the present - at the current uses of fossil fuels, and with a nod to the effects of climate change and international competition for energy sources. The book is divided into several 'maps' - one for the United States, for Russia, for China, and for the Middle East. There are brief asides for other actors - Kazakhstan, for example. While a focus on the supply side is obviously important, there is less of a focus on the demand side - much of Western Europe is shoved into a few chapters about the NordStream pipeline. Barely anything for India or Japan, which are astonishing ommissions.
From what I do know, the book makes unusual turns. Yergin includes brief stories about small-scale frackers in the Barnett Field in Texas. A good starting point - that is some context. But on the other hand, the story of this industry in the aggregate is missing. Likewise, the story of the 10,000-pound elephants in the room, Chevron, and ExxonMobil, is also missing. How would these firms adapt to the new climate or new technologies?
This is the problem with talking about the present and not the past. The future is not yet known, and much of the present decision-making is inaccessible. The new map resembles that of the Europeans around 1493 - broad stretches of coastline here, a few islands there, and all the rest a complete unknown - including whatever war or future catastrophe may unfold. -
This is the latest book by Daniel Yergin that provides a relatively up to date tour of the global horizon for the geopolitics and sector development of energy. This is an update to Professor Yergin’s earlier books that brings the energy sector up to date with developments in shale oil and gas, along with the emergence of a global consensus (more or less) on climate - and how climate affects energy geopolitics. Unless one follows the sector regularly, there is much to catch up on (a negative futures price for a barrel of oil??). In additional to the technical issues, there are the international political and economic developments around the rise of China, the policies of Putin, the rise of “mobility as a service” initiatives, and Trump’s imprint on all of this.
Its a bit complicated.
Then there is SARS-2 / Covid-19. The pandemic has thrown a bomb into the mix of the world economy, energy, and climate. (I have driven only a few hundred miles in the last nine months.). How does the pandemic affect energy politics and economics? What will the lasting effects of the pandemic be? I am not spoiling much to say that its is all a big mess, but Yergin knows how to help organize the issues and frame the questions that are likely to remain important. I suspect his services will be in demand as normality begins to reemerge during the upcoming year some time.
This book is essential for anyone wishing to get up to speed on developments in the energy sector. Yergin is especially good at showing how hard it is to come to any really firm policy conclusions about what to do, given the large number of actors involved, the prior commitments of those actors, the size of the stakes, and the different perspectives that actors are pursuing. So do not expect tidy answers.
Still, as a policy book on energy matters, it is timely and valuable. -
Leitura obrigatória para quem pretende contextualizar as discussões globais sobre transição energética e o que, do ponto de vista geopolítico, implicaria uma matriz energética global cada vez mais renovável. Em particular gostei do cuidado que o autor demonstrou em relação à velocidade da transição energética e sobre a importância de respeitar que essa transição ocorrerá de maneira distinta dependendo da região e do país em questão. Também mto importante a discussão sobre a importância da energia para crescimento econômico e o approach econômico e não somente ambiental destacado pelo livro. Também mto importante os comentários de que o aquecimento global é, pelo nome, um fenômeno global, embora as trajetórias e velocidades de combatê-lo respeitarão idiossincrasias locais. Os exemplos da China e Índia e o papel da Ásia e da África e de países emergentes em geral é um ótimo contra-argumento para a monotemática visão eurocentrica ou norte-americana que o discurso sobre matrizes energéticas povoa a mídia atualmente. Livro fundamental, muito bem escrito e importante material de discussão para matrizes energéticas e suas transições.
-
This book is pretty weak for a Daniel Yergin book. I have read "The Prize", "The Quest", and "The Commanding Heights." Some of those titles are a bit dated now, but still well worth the read and do an amazing job of highlighting the thrust of modern geopolitics. This book is more disjointed and hard to follow. I felt Yergin was basing his conclusions more on his feelings then on the evidence he presented in the book and his conclusions were not all that insightful or helpful. If you are in any way familiar with Yergin's work this is going to repeat a lot of his previous writings- industrial nations are massive energy consumers and the need to sustain that consumption is the underlying reason for their actions on a geopolitical scale. Shifting needs means shifting alliances, etc, etc.
That being said, I do highly recommend Yergin, just not this book. "The Prize" or "The Quest" is an excellent place to start. You can really skip this one and not miss out on much. -
In 1973 due to the Yom Kippur War involving Israel, Egypt and Syria the world found itself caught in the midst of a global energy crisis as the Arab states employed OPEC to impose an oil embargo. The result in the United States was long lines at gas stations, odd and even numbered license plates recognized to allow the purchase of gas, and a retraction of the American economy as oil prices spiraled and along with it the price of gasoline. The US was tied to Saudi Arabia importing between 25-40% of its oil needs. This situation reemerged in 1979 when the Shah of Iran, an American ally was overthrown by Islamists producing another oil crunch. The history of these events and their impact on the world economy were delineated by Daniel Yergin in his Pulitzer Prize winning history of oil, THE PRIZE: THE EPIC QUEST FOR OIL, MONEY, AND POWER. Yergin argued that the United States was running out of oil and he analyzed how that would negatively impact the American economy if changes were not implemented. The American oil industry seemed to be at a standstill as the demands for sources of oil and the climate change movement began to converge. In his new book, THE NEW MAP: ENERGY, CLIMATE, AND THE CLASH OF NATIONS, Yergin builds upon his previous history pointing out how the “shale revolution” has impacted the United States transforming the American economy and providing resources that have launched US energy reserves levels to perhaps the highest in the world. This lack of energy dependency has been in many ways responsible for the boom in the American economy before the arrival of the coronavirus.
Yergin is a master storyteller and global energy expert who presents an incisive analysis of energy’s role in climate change and the role of international politics as everyone seems to be seeking an energy revolution for a low-carbon future. For the United States, “fracking” seems to be one aspect of the equation that his increased its energy political prowess during the last decade. The result has raised the level of geopolitical competition worldwide focusing on what appears to be a new Cold War between the United States and China, and Vladimir Putin’s pivot toward China as Russia’s energy production needs a reliable energy consumption partner. Yergin focuses on these energy and geopolitical questions and the profound changes that seem to lie ahead.
Yergin’s presentation and analysis begins with the “shale revolution” in the United States and its impact on the world. He plies his craft well and no matter the area he delves into his prose is clear, the narrative is well founded, and his analysis is thought provoking and explains a great deal that many do not understand. The Pre-COVID-19 American economy took off due to the new technology of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling that allowed the United States to become a major player in the world of oil. Yergin explains how the American trade deficit declined due to this “shale revolution” and how foreign investment, particularly chemical related facilities has flowed into the US economy because of cheap natural gas. Even American companies have cut their own foreign investment and increased domestic investment. This has led to a manufacturing renaissance in the United States.
Yergin carefully explores the impact of the emergence of the United States as an energy superpower in the context of discussing different world regions and their energy needs. The shale revolution has greatly impacted Russia who in 2013 was the world’s leading producer of natural gas as well as a major supplier to Europe. With the arrival of the United States in the marketplace it has provided a diversification for European supplies lessening their reliance on Moscow and the games that Putin has played and depoliticized the natural gas market. Further, new American sources have increased its flexibility in foreign policy which it has not known in decades. It also allows the United States and China to interact in the global marketplace to the benefit of each other. Middle Eastern states now find their influence reduced, it has brought the United States and India closer together and reduced the trade imbalance with Japan and South Korea. In fact, by 2018 the United States overtook Russia and Saudi Arabia as the world’s largest oil producer.
Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 oil allowed for its economic rebound as it provided 40-50% of the Russian budget, 55-60% of its export earnings, and 30% of its GDP. With the changing marketplace with Europe, Russia has moved closer to China as they have a mutual need, Russia must export energy, and China must have reliable sources to fuel its economy. The geopolitical realignment has also been affected by the decline in nuclear energy sourcing due to the Fukashima disaster in Japan that had led to their shutting down of nuclear power plants in Japan and Germany. This is the key component of Yergin’s narrative, the geopolitical realignment in the world due to changes and sources of energy and its impact on the world economy.
Yergin is a superb historian as he focuses on the different regions of the world and the most important aspects as they relate to energy. The decline in US-Russian relations is a key aspect particularly Putin’s reaction to President Obama’s reference to Russia as a regional power. Events in the Eastern Ukraine, Crimea, Georgia, and exploration in the Arctic are all explored as is the China-Russia rapprochement or pseudo alliance focused on the expansion of American power. The role of the South China Sea and China’s move to achieve hegemony in the area are thoroughly narrated as the region is the superhighway for China’s energy needs. China’s strategy greatly impacts Vietnam, and other nations as China’s “core interests” have confronted America’s “national interests.”
At times Yergin seems to play the role of an energy and transportation dilletante as he explores what seems to be innocuous topics that turn out to be very meaningful. A case in point is how the emergence of the container industry has consolidated world trade. This is reflected by the fact that China is responsible for 40% of the world’s container shipments or what Yergin refers to as how containerization has become the backbone of world trade.
Yergin exhibits his historical knowledge and analytical skills as he delves into the energy history of the Middle East. Once the dominant region for energy, Middle Eastern countries now find themselves as competing in world markets, not dominating them. Yergin has a firm grasp of the conflicts that have impacted the region since World War I. His reporting is accurate as he approaches Iran’s drive for regional hegemony; the failure of the Arab Spring; the developing Saudi-Iranian conflict that has spilled over into Yemen; the axis of resistance formed by Iran as they dominate Lebanon, Syria, and to a large extent Iraq. His approach explains the rationale for the new Israeli-Saudi accommodation as the common enemy of Iran reflects the truism of Harold Nicholson’s dictum that the enemy of my enemy is my friend.
Yergin’s perceptive commentary pervades the entire narrative that expands beyond a historical approach to one that includes the most recent changes in the world’s attitude toward energy. The emergence of climate change as a dominant issue is key Yergin focuses on new technologies that have produced the electric car, robotics, artificial intelligence, auto-tech, solar and wind as the world seems to want to reduce its carbon impact on the planet. In addition, Yergin presents his concerns over the impact of the Trump presidency and Covid-19 on energy markets and how each has fostered dynamic changes in world politics and makes predictions as what might occur in the future.
However, Yergin’s approach has been questioned by writers such as Bill McKibben in the Washington Post, and Adam Tooze in the New York Times. What follows are excerpts of their issues with Yergin, McKibben writes;
Perhaps Yergin assumes that we have that map in our heads. Perhaps he wants to spare us the embarrassment of reviewing the shambles of Washington’s grand strategy since the war on terror. Perhaps he himself is conflicted, torn by America’s painful polarization. In the era of Trump there is not one American map. Yergin’s own position seems uncertain. He seems at odds with the recent turn against China. But he does not elaborate an alternative. On Russia, he merely notes that it has become a hot-button issue.
The result is a history without a center. A collage in which pigheaded Texan oil men, aspiring tech whizzes, Saddam Hussein, Qaddafi — dead in a drain pipe — Xi Jinping and his guy-pal Vladimir Putin, Saudi dynasts and vast arctic gas plants pass in review. The chronology is similarly helter-skelter. One minute we are pitching ideas to Elon Musk in Silicon Valley, the next we are back in 1916 peering over the shoulder of the diplomats who carved up the Ottoman Empire. At times it feels as if we are being whirled through a remix of the greatest hits from “The Prize.”*
Tooze writes;
Above all, the plummeting cost of solar and wind is reshaping the energy future, and here Yergin’s analysis is undermined by increasingly obsolete arguments about how hard it is to store power when the sun isn’t shining; electric grids are coping fine with ever-larger shares of renewable energy. They’re not, however, coping well with climate change: Drooping wires in record heat are responsible for many of the blazes now charring the West. Change clearly needs to come fast, and Yergin is so embedded in old patterns of thought that he can’t quite recognize the urgency. Even history bends to physics.**
No matter what one’s opinion is of Yergin’s new work it is an important contribution for the study of the topic, and the debate it has fostered.
*Adam Tooze, “The Future of Energy,” New York Times, September 15, 2020.
**Bill McKibben, “A Global Energy Study that Misses Some Climate Change Realities,” Washington Post, September 25, 2020. -
Along with Vaclav Smil, Daniel Yergin has to be the best writer plying his wares on the energy sector today. He strikes vintage form with "The New Map." Broadly splitting the book into four territories covering USA, Russia, China and the Middle East, Yergin holds forth on the changing paradigms in the energy landscape. From the politics of pipelines to the uproar over unilaterally imposed sanctions, the master craftsman prises open the lid hiding many an intricacy of the Oil and Gas business that spurs the world.
Whether it be the expeditionary Belt and Road Initiative of China or the Look East pivot of Vladimir Putin, Yergin highlights in a lucid fashion the role played by Oil in all of these economic and political overtures. But some of the most important chapters are those where the Middle Eastern/Gulf countries comprising the premier petroleum world body the OPEC are constantly striving to get out of their oil dependency. The efforts of the charismatic Mohammad Bin Salman (popularly known as MBS), the Crown Prince of the Republic of Saudi Arabia, in attempting to transform the very ethos of his country by ushering in radical reforms such as allowing women to drive, re-opening of movie theatres (hitherto considered taboo) etc are all attempts to lure 'non-oil' related investments into the Kingdom. However, as Yergin illustrates his most audacious move till date (discounting the heinous bravado in sending a hit squad to murder in cold blood, the popular journalist Adnan Kashoggi), has been the move to publicly list the largest oil company on the Planet Saudi Aramco. With a market valuation of $2 trillion the listing in itself was an epochal and unimaginable process.
Yergin also expounds on the future of oil in the light of ever popular energy alternatives such as solar and wind power, Carbon Capture Use and Sequestering and the employ of Hydrogen. As he educates his viewers, the associated costs and impediments brought on by the vagaries of nature such as intermittent sunlight and wind, ensure that the progress in terms of renewables is putting it mildly, pedestrian. However, Oil will face a tumultuous future when Electric Vehicles and driverless cars make a mark on the world economics.
Meticulously researched, methodically presented and magnificently narrated, "The New Map" is an indispensable addition to the collection of anyone having an interest in the domain of energy in general, and Oil & Gas segment in particular. -
I loved the book. Todays politics are largely driven by the needs of individual countries, among others, energy needs. Daniel Yergin writes a macroeconomic treatise about the current state of energy production and consumption in different geographical regions, and the policies and politics caused by these.
It all culminates in a future outlook. While he certainly cannot provide the answer on what will be, he describes very factual and accurate the current situation we are in and initiatives people and policy makers are taking.
Non-fiction buffs will like the larger context the book provides on issues like fracking, (keystone) pipeline building, new green deal and other topics frequenting the headlines in your favorite newscast. He does this all with little emotion or political association. Very sober, factual and straight from the gut. -
How it’s possible to write a book about the state and future of energy in 2020 without taking renewables and climate change seriously is incomprehensible.
I wish I had read the final paragraph of the New York Times review of this book before deciding whether to invest time in reading The New Map:
“Perhaps in the confusion of the current moment it is vain to expect more from master narratives. But Yergin’s indecision has a price and this is most evident with regard to his treatment of climate politics. He oscillates between insisting on the vital importance of the issue and dismissing environmental activism as a pesky nuisance. Ultimately, he is ambivalent. “The debate over how rapidly the world can and must adjust to a changing climate … is unlikely to be resolved in this decade.” Given the timeline that we face, this blithe acceptance of indecision is a road map for catastrophe.” -
So, my CEO gave all the employees this book last year and I finally got around to reading it. I'm glad I did. You can see how this book influenced her decisions or her thinking on decisions for the future of our company. This book was informative and interesting, especially in my industry. And a little bit prophetic with what's happening with Ukraine and Russia and China. I love the way it was organized and the history given. I do love the talk about climate and how it effects are industry and what companies (like mine) are doing to help.
There was some repeated information and sometimes you can get lost with all the facts thrown at you. Also, sometimes, he was too broad or taking leaps with his conclusions. I'm sorry but the Syrian refugee crisis was not a big contributing factor (or even at all) to BREXIT and the populist nationalism in some European countries were already happening due to big terrorist attacks that happened before Syrians flooded the borders.
But if you truly want to learn about the oil and gas industry and our future without judgment or criticism, this is the book for you. If you want to learn about what's going on in the world and how certain things are changing the map of those countries, this is also the book for you. -
I do not believe in god, but still managed to thank god when finishing "The New Map." It's a bit of a head-scratcher for me that the book is so highly rated here.
"The New Map" is a number of country-/region profiles (the U.S., China, Russia, the EU, etc), a few case studies on energy production industries (oil, gas, renewables, etc), a couple of focus area analyses and case studies that (likely) piqued the author's interests, hastily wrapped up in Yergin's attempt at painting "The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations."
Unfortunately, it's abundantly clear that the author is more interested in the "energy" - particularly of the fossil fuel variety - and "clash of nations" bits than anything else. The book is also terribly U.S.-centric - which would be fine, I guess, if it wasn't for the blatant U.S. bias it's packed together with. Moreover, and frankly, for an author of a book that sells itself on painting a complete picture of a new energy map to be so border-line fan-boyish when discussing one particular aspect of it - unnecessary hint: the oil and gas bits again - well, it was unpalatable for this reader.
Now don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that everything in this book is hogwash. It isn't. But the very evident flaws stemming from the author's biases, coupled with superficial and over-simplified "backgrounds" on everything from the mundane to climate change that almost mislead more than they help, and finished off with sleep-inducing writing... it just makes for a pretty painful experience reading.
So thank god that I will no longer be doing that and, honestly, I don't think you should either. -
The New Map is interesting and capable on explaining traditional sources of energy. But when it comes to exploring what's 'new', or on how energy shapes the 'map', it is either dull, one-sided or missing in terms of analysis.
Yergin's work shines when he's addressing specifics energy sources. This book offers the analysis of US shale capacity I had long wanted to read, and his argument for why oil and coal will remain part of the energy mix long into the future is well explained. He's also quite good on the pipeline challenges in Europe and North America and the way they have become political footballs.
The analysis of the political implications is however weak. Yergin rarely links the specifics of energy to the specifics of politics. I.e. he shows the US was less worried about importing energy due to its shale capacity, but what that meant for how the US acted in its relationships or worldview is not discussed. There is a long discussion of China's interest in the South China Sea, covering very well trodden ground, and then a brief line saying 'actually it seems there really isn't much oil under the SCS anyway'. Nor does Yergin have anything really interesting to say about the politics. It's just an implied link between various energy sources and a picture of geopolitics as a rough realist and fundamentally material contest.
The core message of this book seems to be that the New Map will still largely look like the Old Map. While Yergin finally brings himself to discuss renewables near the end of the book, he doesn't discuss what this might mean for politics. Would China or the US change their global approaches if they were genuinely energy independent? What happens to Russia or Saudi Arabia when no one wants their oil? To a degree, Yergin rejects the premise of these questions. He argues that due to vast energy needs, baked in investment, slow technological development and government policies, we're going to need a *net* carbon goal as these energy sources will remain a core part of the world's energy picture.
That's an important point, but making it often overwhelms his other analysis. Yergin does not take a stand against climate change, though he consistently downplays its significance and sneers at those who want to act rapidly on it. He might protest his book is written in a neutral tone, but his selection of topics shows otherwise. For instance, he repeatedly, insistently returns to the role of government subsidies propping up solar and renewables, but never discusses the vast government subsidies for fossil fuels (estimated at $5.9 trillion globally by the IMF).
Thus, there's some interesting snippets here. But it's too much of a general tour of world politics and 20th century history to really get into the essential issues of what's new, what that means and how energy translates into specific political ideas, decisions and outcomes. -
Yergin won a Pulitzer Prize for his report on energy. This latest book maps out the current roadmap of energy.
1. The shale gas revolution in America had transformed America into an energy superpower, exporting LNG and oil. This increased overall supply and depressed prices.
2. The Iran deal further added to global supply.
3. Lower prices are good for importers but quite devastating for exporters such as OPEC countries and Russia. They can longer control the price by restricting output.
4. Gas pipelines from Russia are now reaching Europe and China. Post Crimean sanctions, Russia had no choice but to supply more to China t lower prices, drawing them together.
5. China is concerned about its access to energy and that has caused it to build naval bases in the South China Sea which is hotly contested.
6. The Middle East countries are finally realising that they can no longer rely on oil export as their major driver of economy. It is to diversify or die.
7. Wind and solar are promising but they still account for less than 10% of global energy output. We will still need to rely on oil for a long time to come because of existing infrastructure, stability and scale.
8. It is unrealistic for America to stop all fracking, new pipeline laying and export. What would power our car and heaters then?
9. The coronavirus will depress demand for a while but not forever. The requirement for energy, mostly from oil will be mainly driven by developing countries, especially China and India. China is already the biggest user and producer of solar panels.
10. Governments devastated from the Covid-19 will need to delay their new investment in Green energy as they are straddled with huge debts. -
As the rating suggests this is a terrible book. The main drawback is a COMPLETE misreading of Chinese data: China 2025; debt to GDP; agriculture; energy; renewables, etc. Yergin gets this wholly wrong.
Then there the little matter of world demographics. Between 2022 and 2024 the bulk of the Boomers will retire taking their money with them. The Americans have the Millenials to fall back on, but no one else does, though France and New Zealand have a small cohort (not enough to replace the Boomers even a little bit). So, Consumption, Investment, and Export-led growth will no longer be possible. This means socialism, communism, fascism, and capitalism will no longer be possible...outside of America. All -isms are based on more. We, the world, are moving into an era of less--again...except America.
Yergin's argument is mostly based on the idea of continuing cheap capital. In America, this will, after 2022, go up four or five times what it is today.
This is only a taste of what Yergin gets wholly wrong.
Don't even get me started on the G2: America and China, according to Yergin.
In ten years China will be lucky to be a unified country after the crash that is coming -- see above.
America? It will retreat into the Americas, placing a Cordon Sanitaire around this and let the world burn...except for its five trading partners -- Canada, Mexico, UK, Japan South Korea.
Welcome to the world of post-growth.
Yergin's book Quest made a lot of sense at the time. This one is drivel. -
Great environmental book on climate change.
An eye-opening view on things like the global elite affecting the climate of the world through business practices or policy.
The book focused lots on USA, Russia, and China, but had lots of problems and solutions that could be observed in any nation.
I thought this was a very important read.
Highly recommended for all environmentally-conscious people.
4.6/5 -
I don’t know if I will write a review for this book but what I can say is find you a partner that looks at you the way the U.S looks at oil.
-
Загалом дуже корисна книга для людей, які не пов‘язані з енергетикою. Бо дізнаєшся багато різноманітних деталей щодо енергетики, видобування копалин, логістику. До прикладу, що такі сланцеві газ/нафта, що таке фрекінг, СПГ, спеціальні танкери та ін. А також найцікавіше, це взаємозв’язок різних видів енергетики, політики, ціноутворення, війн. Або як з допомогою трубопроводів провадять політику, наскільки вплинула на світ сланцева революція, та чому Близький Схід постійно в новинах.
Варто відзначити також огляд цілей розвинутих країн та вимог щодо вуглецевих викидів, Паризьку конференцію з одного боку, і можливості країн, що розвиваються з іншого боку. Адже для США з їх бюджетом розвинутої набагато легше переходити на екоресурси, ніж для умовного Ніґера чи Венесуели.
Окремо, розглядається теми електромобілів та їх майбутнє, зухвалі цілі монстрів автопрому. Та те, наскільки екочистий електромобіль шкодить довкіллю під вас виробництва. Це таке стосується і вітряків.
Щодо мінусів, то тут можна відзначити, що геополітична ситуація змінилися від початку повномасштабного вторгнення РФ в Україну, і тому певна інформація вже є застарілою, особливо щодо РФ та її впливів. Проте, ці всі події підняли важливість СПГ для Європи, і показали, що і без російських трубопроводів Європа може спокійно зимувати.
Для мене, людини, яка не знала ні шо таке сланцева нафта, ні СПГ, ні вплив енергоресурсів на геополітику - це була цікава подорож. -
In the past I've been somewhat willfully ignorant of energy and geopolitics, preferring to rely on such basic heuristics as oil=bad, green energy=good, other countries=bad, and my-country=good. As a fan of history and science, however, this isn't a very good look, particularly as someone who would like to be a person who knows about things and can thus be taken seriously by others and contribute to various societal discourses, including participation in the ongoing project of American democracy.
Further, as someone whose brother worked in fracking for a few years, it feels very strange that the shale revolution that would change the global energy balance so vastly, flew pretty much over my head and I assume over the head of most people. I do remember much ado about fracking protests and various complaints, but I had no clue as to the depth of all the various consequences, for which the positives surely heavily outweigh the negatives, at least on a utilitarian basis. Mr. Yergin's book, with an epic perspective, has gone a long way in helping me understand more about the world around me and the directions we very well may be headed.
Also, the world is more like Game of Thrones than I ever thought much about before. Particularly the chapter "Arc of Confrontation." -
Absolutely brilliant book. Dense with information on the geopolitical climate surrounding nations’ struggles with energy security and how that can and will descend into hostilities (the G2 between the US and china). It tells you everything you need to know about the history of energy and technology and where these two factors, in the context of climate debates, are heading.
The bad: Daniel obviously didn’t do much English at school because, for a book of this prestige, the grammar is sometimes laughable. But I am determined not to let that undermine all the knowledge I’ve picked up in such an excellent book.
Probs wouldn’t recommend to Lucy as she isn’t really interested in geopolitics or hostilities between nations but maybe she’ll come around one day. -
Hay un esfuerzo vertido en este libro: comprender la situación actual de la geopolítica a través de la energía y los recursos que mueven la economía. Orienta, en diversas ocasiones, sobre el origen de algunos conflictos actuales (llámese, Rusia-Ucrania-OTAN), así como el impacto de la pandemia en todos estos menesteres.
También hay sesgos. Muy importantes. En el plano más obvio para mí, limita a México a poco más de una página, en la que resume "EPN bueno, AMLO malo". Y, entonces, me hace cuestionar lo objetivo que el autor es respecto a otros temas. Y claro, al seguir leyendo se nota que comparte y defiende la visión imperialista/colonialista de los gringos. Pinta, de una manera no tan sutil, a los rusos y a los chinos como villanos que su país debe vencer para seguir contando historias de éxito y meritocracia. Porque así pasa: al hablar de las energías en su país, habla sobre individuos, historias, y hasta podría decir esperanza. Pero cuando habla de otros países, habla desde la división del "ellos/nosotros", "buenos/malos". Hasta en las fotografías que eligió: Obama, radiante mientras camina entre unos oleoductos; Putin, haciendo judo pero con no tan radiante; Xi, dictatorial; López, encorvado y torciendo la boca; árabes, como villanos de película. Eso sí, al menos Trump no sale airoso en este análisis.
En general, sirve para orientarse en la situación actual de la geopolítica. Pero cuidado con los sesgos, que son unos topes altos que rayan el chasis.
