Baseball Between the Numbers: Why Everything You Know About the Game Is Wrong by Jonah Keri

Baseball Between the Numbers: Why Everything You Know About the Game Is Wrong Reviews

• 
  Bucko

  If you don't know much about baseball, but you're looking for a book to help you gain a better understanding of the sport, this is NOT the place to start. This is a book for a pretty advanced baseball enthusiast, someone who not only likes baseball, but is also generally interested in economics and thinking about numbers. It is a collection of essays, each dealing with a different topic, but using the same techniques to analyze how we understand what we are seeing when we watch a baseball game. The following anecdote isn't included in the book, but I feel like it does a good job of explaining what its pages contain.
  
  Background:
  People have been playing baseball for a very long time. What makes baseball different from football or any other sport is that people have been playing baseball essentially the same way for a very long time. Statistics for a baseball player who played in the 1920s are still comparable to statistics for a player who plays today. Baseball fans have grown up looking at the back of baseball cards, seeing the statistics of players, and making judgments about the value of players based on those "traditional" stats: Batting Average and RBI (Runs Batted In) for hitters or Wins and Losses for pitchers. What this book says is that those established statistics which have been used to measure a player's ability are flawed and cannot give us the best concept of a player's skill.
  
  Example:
  Ask a baseball fan if he could tell the difference between a .300 hitter and a .250 hitter and he would say "Of course!" A .300 batting average has been the hallmark of excellence for over a century; .300 hitters are rare and exceptional, players who have long and storied careers. A .250 batting average, by contrast, is the hallmark of mediocrity. A player who manages a .250 average might play for a few seasons, perhaps even a full career, but will hardly be remembered and certainly not revered. A baseball fan has trained himself to think a .300 hitter will look excellent when he is at bat, while a .250 hitter will look mediocre.
  
  A baseball season stretches from the beginning of April to the first few days of October, around six months or 26 weeks. For the sake of argument, let's say that over the course of a season a typical player might have around 600 At Bats (a little high, but close enough). Over those 600 ABs, a .300 hitter will get 180 hits, while a .250 hitter will get 150 hits. While a 30 hit difference might seem like a lot, it really isn't. Six hundred ABs over a 26-week season breaks down to about 23 ABs a week. A .300 hitter will have 6.9 hits a week; the .250 hitter will have 5.75 hits a week, a difference of about 1.15 hits a week.
  
  What does it mean?
  A baseball fan thinks he can recognize the difference between a .300 hitter and a .250 hitter very easily, but what he really recognizes is the context the statistic gives him. If batting averages weren't compiled and prominently displayed all over the ballpark during every At Bat of every player, a baseball fan would not be able to distinguish between the player who gathered an extra 1.15 hits per week and the player who didn't, even if he watched every At Bat of both players all season! The difference between excellence and mediocrity is too marginal to be determined with the naked eye - we use statistics to make the determination for us, and they matter for baseball because the meanings of these statistics and labels have mostly remained the same for over a century.
  
  The purpose of this book is to look at all of the statistics we have been using over that century and seeing if they actually help give us the best concept of a player's skill level. As the authors claim, what you think you know about baseball statistics is wrong, or at least not completely right. This book gives the baseball fan new statistics to help him understand the game a little better.
  
• 
  Kevin

  At the risk of over-generalization and dredging up Moneyball arguments, I think baseball fans generally fall into three categories: stat-heads, traditionalists (for lack of a better term), and those who are somewhere in between. This book aims for those who are somewhere in between.
  
  If you're a stat-head, this book presents nothing new. You'll probably still find it interesting, but you'll be wanting a deeper explanation behind the numbers and probably be frustrated by the simplification of some of the findings and concepts.
  
  If you're a traditionalist, don't bother with this book. My brother is one of those people who defends the NL's lack of a DH by arguing that it's somehow a "purer" and "better" version of the game. I loaned this book to him and he couldn't make it through a single essay before he just shut down and started arguing with me about clutchness not being quantifiable and how numbers can't tell you what's going to happen in any given at bat. I tried to point out that this book contains an essay about clutch hitting and whether its a statistical anomaly or a tangible skill, but he had already given up by the time he saw WAR, BABIP, and the other assorted acronyms of advanced baseball metrics. If you're entrenched in your belief that math nerds with their slide rules and calculators who have never played the game can't possibly explain things that happen on the field, this book can only serve as an irritant of the same magnitude as Joe Morgan is to anyone who knows what OPS stands for.
  
  If you're somewhere in between though, this book is BP's attempt to sway you away from scouting reports and their descriptions of a player's "tools." With decades upon decades of box scores and new statistics being compiled every year, numbers can tell you a whole lot about a baseball player and his true talent level that the human eye might miss. This book sets up loaded questions (e.g. What's the Matter with RBI? or When is One Run Worth More than Two?) and breaks down the statistics and research that explain why the conventional thinking is wrong. If you're just starting to dabble in advanced metrics or want to challenge some basic assumptions about the game, you could do worse than starting here.
• 
  jeremy

  baseball between the numbers, and sabermetric analysis of the game in general, has many proponents, but is not without its fair share of detractors. through advanced statistical examination (regression analysis, correlation studies, algorithms, etc.), there are many that believe baseball can be more clearly understood (with the implications being that individual player talent can be more accurately defined, and, thus, managers can use this information to increase the overall success of their respective clubs). in baseball between the numbers, the writers (or experts, as the title page so modestly deems them) at baseball prospectus consider some of the game's most contentious and long-held presumptions and attempt to discern the statistical truths from a bewilderingly broad swath of data.
  
  the authors, amongst other topics, consider the undue attention paid to the rbi and a pitcher's win total, arguing that neither of these statistics are accurate gauges of a player's prowess. other issues analyzed include steroids, stadium financing, salary caps, the 5-man pitching rotation, utilization of relief pitchers, and the notion of a clutch hitter. much of the data resulting from the organization's statistical inquiries seems to defy decades-old conventional wisdom surrounding particular aspects of the game. the effects that sabermetrics have had on the game of baseball are at this point immeasurable, as clubs have increasingly incorporated advanced statistics in their decision making processes.
  
  nearly every chapter of baseball between the numbers (of which there are twenty-seven proper: nine innings x 3 outs) offers something interesting, although a few veer into the realm of the unnecessarily captious. despite the subject's intrigue, the writing more often than not leaves quite a bit to be desired, and at times borders on the excruciating. what the book lacks in literary fecundity, however, it does make up for in encyclopedic knowledge, statistical proficiency, and measured application.
  
  much to their credit, the folks at baseball prospectus were careful to frame their work in its proper context:
  

  but to arrive at an answer that expands our knowledge of the game, we need to ask the right smaller questions within the framework of the bigger question... we use numbers as a framework to delve into these answers. but it's the process of learning to think critically about the game that defines this book, and in a broader sense defines our experiences as avid fans of the game... we put this book together because we love baseball, and we want to see it grow and succeed. that we approach the game with an analytical eye and a critical keyboard doesn't diminish the joy we've derived from baseball- it enhances it.

  most of the criticisms i have read about the book (and, again, sabermetrics in general) seem to suggest that these advanced statistics somehow devalue the game. while i am sympathetic to any dehumanizing trend, it is perhaps foolish to consider sabermetrics as anything other than an expository tool. baseball between the numbers, by the authors' own admission, is an attempt to enrich one's love for and understanding of the game, not supplant it with useless, irrelevant, or superfluous data. considered with this in mind, the book will indeed lead even the most ardent of baseball fans to rethink some of their fundamental beliefs about players, strategies, and even the game itself.
• 
  Andrew

  I don't think that everything I knew about the game was wrong but this was most definitely an interesting read. As a baseball junkie and die hard Dodger fan I occasionally found myself in a debate with the authors. Whether this is due to me leaning towards baseball traditionalists or simply data interpretation, these debates were entertaining nonetheless. The fact that the book was written in 2006 also provides an interesting perspective on steroid usage and the use of sabermetrics in general. I'm still a believer that there are intangibles in today's game that may not show up in statistics but do help teams win games and become successful organizations.
• 
  Leslie

  Overall the analysts at Baseball Prospectus do an admirable job of analyzing baseball issues with unbeatable statistics.
  
  At times, however, they’ll cherry-pick the statistics to prove a dubious point, viz. they claim Barry Bonds never used performance enhancing drugs. They skip over Bonds' enlarged head (a side effect of the massive use of Human Growth Hormone). In fact, they skip over nearly everything in the book “Games of shadows: Barry Bonds, BALCO, and the steroids scandal that rocked professional sport”.
  
  Nonetheless, they make important points. For example, almost all major league teams have a closer who pitches only the ninth inning, even if they’re ahead by 3 runs with nobody on base. The book’s writers make the common sense point, backed up by statistics, that it would make much more sense to use the closer in high-leverage situations (runners on base with a lead of less than 3 runs) in the 6th, 7th, or 8th inning.
  
• 
  max

  While much has changed in baseball since even 2006 when this book was published--including the return of the pitcher, fewer steroid-fueled home runs, and an increased focus on fielding--one of the most important developments has been the continued rise of statistical analysis in front office decision making.
  
  In 2006, several clubs still held out against the crucial statistical terms discussed in this book, such as value over replacement level, on-base percentage, PECOTA, sample size, true outcomes, and marginal wins. Now many of these terms are at least familiar to casual fans, and known forward and backward by every executive. It's only the talking heads who still insist on talking out of their asses.
  
  Baseball Between the Numbers covers a diverse and provocative set of topics, such as whether newly built ballbarks help create jobs and revenue, whether Barry Bonds is a greater player than Babe Ruth, whether the closer role is a good use of a team's top reliever, whether catchers can affect the outcome of games, and whether some hitters can defy platoon splits expectations.
  
  There are also a couple of chapters on stolen bases and sacrifice plays which draw conclusions based on 2005 offensive numbers, but their premise is nevertheless strong, and the reasoning and analysis compelling.
  
  A must-read for the contemporary baseball fan, and a worthwhile read anyone with interest in economics or business.
• 
  Jason Hall

  This is a terrific introduction to advanced statistical analysis, and how a better objective understanding of how baseball games are won can lead to better player evaluation and projection. Baseball Between the Numbers also does a great deal to diffuse the manufactured argument of "stats versus scouts." As the authors of this book point out, a successful team needs both stats AND scouts. Each of these methods make up for the weaknesses and limitations in the other. Thankfully, most MLB organizations nowadays are incorporating both into their player evaluation and development systems. More and more scouts are using statistical analysis to give themselves a context in which to evaluate the players they are assigned to observe. This is a most welcome development, and hopefully the beginning of the end of a very tiresome argument.
• 
  C

  I found it very interesting even though I hate baseball. I feel like they went easy on Bonds though. But of course, anything short of poisoning him and burying the body in OJ Simpson's old lawn in Brentwood (the one by the guesthouse that Kato Kaelin was staying in) is too easy for Bonds. Really glad he got no rings. No rings! Ramiro Mendoza, with a staggering WAR of 10.3, got 4 rings. Barry Bonds ain't got nothing except a huge head. Also CajoleJuice made me read this book.
• 
  Mike Angelillo

  Is it too much to ask that Joe Morgan and Tim McCarver read a book like this and seriously consider some of the information??? Would Morgan then finally stop talking about the "little things" that makes a team win?!??!
• 
  Darin

  Do you think Derek Jeter is the best shortstop ever? Do you just love "small ball"? Still evaluating pitchers on their win/loss record? Do you like your favorite player because everyone thinks he is "gritty"? First of all, you should finish your Cheerios. Then, you should read this book.
• 
  Zach Koenig

  There are so many questions inherent in every professional baseball game: Which pitcher should start (and when)? Should the sacrifice bunt be laid down? Is the closer best saved for the ninth inning? What more important: on-base or slugging percentage? The list could go on and on. This book takes a purely statistical approach towards answering those questions, using averages and complicated (to the layman) formulas to parse the facts.
  
  For the baseball junkie, almost every chapter in this book raises a new and interesting question. Though a game based on averages can never quite be predicted accurately (the worst hitter in the league always has a chance against the best pitcher), this book takes the stats-bases approach to finding answers, parsing through decades of raw numbers to do so. This is intriguing because most baseball fans only see the sport through small sample sizes like games, weeks, or even months. This crew from Baseball Prospectus, however, uses substantially larger sample sizes to more accurately interpret the information. The result is some very interesting findings that will likely challenge some of your long-held notions about the game.
  
  The only drawback of this book is that the statistical formulas used will go over the head of those not familiar with high-level number manipulation. You basically have two options: Spend hours trying to understand all the graphs/data points, or just trust that the stat-heads are feeding you good information. I took the latter approach, and was still able to enjoy the experience.
  
  Overall, then, Baseball Between The Numbers is an interesting little read for the hard-core hardball fan (others will be scared away by the intense subject matter). Think of it like Moneyball, but without the specific focus on Billy Beane and his Oakland A's.
• 
  Shane

  A truly excellent collection of a variety of deeply statistical investigations to answer such questions as "What's the matter with RBI?", "Why are pitchers so unpredictable?", and "How much does Coors field really matter?" Each "chapter" features three related individual questions that are addressed. What's fantastic about this book is the way in which it is written - this isn't really about statistics as numbers, it's about analyzing the game of baseball in the most accurate methods as possible in order to debunk myths and reveal what truly wins games. Mainstream sportswriters love to make the claim that Sabermetrics, as the "new" baseball stats have come to be known, are created by number crunchers living in their mother's basements. Baseball Between the Numbers debunks this allegation, showing Sabermatricians as true lovers of the game - reading about topics such as these makes you appreciate the game more, because you are able to analyze it more deeply yourself, rather than just think you are getting the whole picture from a player's batting average.
  
  The highlights of the book, for me, are the aformetioned "What's the matter with RBI", along with "Are teams letting their closers go to waste?", and "What if Ricky Henderson had Pete Incaviglia's Legs?", a truly excellent demonstration of how little value stolen bases are. The only section that I didn't find fascinating were the financial analysis sections, where things like ticket prices, new stadiums, and salary caps were examined. They weren't poorly written, I just didn't find the subject matter that interesting. On the whole, it was truly excellent and a must for any baseball fan.
• 
  Brian Sison

  This collection of Baseball Prospectus (BP) articles is a great intro to sabermetrics. There are discussions on Value Over Replacement Player, Win Expectancy, Equivalent Runs, and many other statistics that the BP team developed to get a deeper, more accurate understanding of how measurable metrics reflect actual player value.
  
  They demonstrate the error of trusting some of the traditional statistics that have been used to value players for years. Stats such as RBIs & batting average for hitters, and ERA and Wins for pitchers are shown to be highly random and dependant more on opportunity and luck than actual skill or talent.
  
  In addition to the many articles on individual player assesment, there are articles that delve into team efficiency and defense, as well as the importance a manager plays on his team's success.
  
  Overall, this is a great book for an avid baseball fan; it is not an intro book for a novice to the game. I'd highly recommend this book to anyone interested in Fantasy Baseball also. Eventhough there are a handful of statistics that only describe past value, there are many more that can be used as predictive statistics to forecast future performance. Specifically, BP has their PECOTA system which uses past statistics, as well as player age, player type (e.g. big vs fast), and expected career arc path (e.g peak early, average, or late) to predict upcoming yearly stats.
  
  My only complaint of the book is a small one. As this is a collection of previously stand-alone articles, there is some degree of redundancy from chapter to chapter. That's not enough of a complaint to knock it down from 5 stars though.
• 
  Claudia Sorsby

  Thought-provoking. I'm the first to admit that I can't really follow the math (I understand the theory behind a regression analysis, but I couldn't run one, given a bunch of numbers), but I'm very interested in the ideas that flow from it. I'd suspected certain things--public financing of stadiums is a bad idea for everyone but the team owners, for example, or closers should be used at times other than the ninth inning--but it's nice to see actual evidence on them.
  
  I'm also a bit lucky to be reading this book a few years after it came out, for a couple of reasons. First, because one of the authors, Nate Silver, has spent the intervening time covering himself in glory with accurate political predictions, which in turn gives him even more credibility here. "Well, he sure nailed the last two elections, so his methodology seems pretty solid."
  
  Second, because there's now been time to see how the careers of various players mentioned in the book have since unfolded. Sometimes it's been good--Ryan Howard was just getting started then, and he's had some fine years--and sometimes not so good--they mention Eric Chavez, who's sadly spent most of the years since this was published on the disabled list. Whoops. Then again, it's also a useful reminder of the role of simple luck.
  
  I think I'd like to read this book a couple more times, over the next few years. I suspect that I'll understand the game better now as I watch, and that I'll get more out of it again after I've watched a bit more.
• 
  Danielle Mintzlaff

  I realized I am not into stats this much.
• 
  Joe

  In the introduction to this book, either Jonah Keri or Nate Silver states that the book is not about the numbers, it is about the meaning of the numbers and that there is not a lot of math involved. Don't believe them. There is a lot of math. I'm a huge baseball fan as well as a fan of and believer in sabermetrics, so this is of interest to me. Even so, I found it to be a lot of math.
  
  This book came out in 2005, so the ideas espoused herein were pretty breakthrough at the time. Nowadays the ideas have either been accepted or further investigated and perhaps morphed into more complex ideas (not that these ideas aren't complex). If you are a fan of sabermetrics some of this may not seem very groundbreaking to you although it certainly was at the time.
  
  All in all, it is a good look at the beginning of the sabermetric revolution and how the ideas that we know today to be true started. Just beware of the math.
• 
  Joel

  It may be easy for me to give a baseball-related book 5 stars, and I may have already known most of the things talked about in this book, but it doesn't make it any less of a necessary primer on sabermetrics for any intelligent baseball fan.
  
  I originally gave "The Book" five stars, but after reading this, I realize that was a bit ridiculous. "The Book" is practically the textbook it's filled with so many numbers and formulas. Baseball Between the Numbers balances actual writing with numbers much better. It creates interesting chapters that center on questions many baseball fans have probably had at some point, such as "Why Doesn't Billy Beane's Shit Work in the Playoffs?"
  
  If Moneyball is what brought the idea of sabermetrics to the forefront, this is the book that actually explains the methodology behind it. And "The Book" is only for graduate students who have serious issues.
• 
  C.E.

  This is a great look at baseball from a purely statistical point of view. Chapters taking a critical look at conventional wisdom on everything from how to make a batting order to the benefits of bunting will challenge the perceptions of many a traditionalist, but will be of interest to any true fan. Although some of the conclusions are more easily digested than others, its hard to argue against the statistical evidence. As always these guys have REALLY done their homework.
  
  All of this makes a fine read for the open-minded and serious baseball fan although the heavy doses of statistical analysis can be tedious for those who aren't particularly mathcentric and the writing features less of the smart-aleck humor that marks the BP baseball yearbooks.
• 
  Chad

  Great book for baseball fans who want to understand the game beyond the traditional old-school stats. Chapters on clutch hitting, the RBI, stolen bases, and what a pitcher truly controls were fantastic. Unfortunately, the book lost just a bit of steam in the middle when it discussed topics that left the baseball diamond like player values. That article in particular seemed to use an obviously insufficient body of evidence to surmise whether players earn their salaries.
  
  This book may be best suited to reading a couple of chapters at a time with something else in between, but with the new baseball season getting fired up, I couldn't help but read it straight through.
• 
  Ron

  While I liked it, it referenced statistics that I am somewhat familiar with, but, they didn't explain how those statistics were compiled and/or calculated. I get some of them are not easily calculated, but, at least a hint at how they came with the would be nice. I know many of them were arrived at using empirical data gained by perusing databases that store complete baseball statistics, using data mining methods. But, not all of them. Some were calculated values that they explained usage for but not how they were arrived at. Also, I believe many of them are values that are available on their website, but, only premium paying members can have access to.
• 
  Cameron Casey

  Keri asks a lot of interesting questions about baseball while looking for quantitative answers. He starts off each chapter with the questions he aims to answers and methodically goes about answering them. I think that is the problem. The revelations are wonderfully interesting and changed the way I look at baseball, but damn if I did not struggle to get through most of these chapters.
  
  I think that Keri tried to make everything easy to understand. In a vacuum each chapter is straight forward, but taken together it feels like a jumbled mess. After reading Money Ball I thought I could handle a technical statistical book about baseball, but I think I fell below the Mendoza Line.
• 
  Adam

  You really into baseball?? yeah? How about lots of numbers, charts, and graphs??? Not so much? Well that is too bad for you. Only about 60 pages into this, but the purpose is to use hard baseball data to examine the tenets of traditional baseball thinking. After reading this, stats such as batting average and wins (for a pitcher) will seem so primitive in evaluating a player that every FOX Sunday Baseball game you watch will leave you thinking that Joe Buck must be the biggest fucking idiot ever.