The Great Wave: Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History by David Hackett Fischer

The Great Wave: Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History Reviews

• 
  Anna Sheehan

  Whenever anyone looks at the world and sees that everything is falling apart – the top half percent of the top one percent own 98 percent of everything; the governments are corrupt or ineffectual, allowing policies that only reinforce the status quot; the environment is crumbling as millions of species and every single Eco-system suffers from pollution and climate change, respectively, stemming from the very policies that reinforce the status quot of the top one percent of global money sultans – it is refreshing and comforting to know that we’ve gone through all this before.
  
  Many, many times.
  
  David Fischer’s book spells this all out with irrefutable facts and easy-to-assess charts, impeccable research, and a clever and occasionally humorous narrative structure, (the durable consumer goods in medieval Europe were armor, and thus made to make a more durable consumer – I nearly dropped the book I laughed so hard) that, despite all the statistics, makes it easily accessible to both the educated and the layman in economics.
  
  And at the end of each of these economic ages, Fischer points out, when the people have been pushed so close to the margins that the smallest disaster causes utter collapse, it is nice to know that a period of stability arises from the ashes of economic/societal/ecological disaster. These are the eras with kings who have “the great” pasted after their names. These are the stable times when war, though it may exist in pockets, does not plunge the world into chaos, and population levels stabilize, architecture, art and technology are cherished, and education thrives. It is nice to see that it has happened before. It will happen again. It is happening before our eyes.
  
  Here it is again. Ride the wave.
• 
  Shira

  There were many interesting older sources, particularly in French, but I was unable to find copies of the books because they are so old, unfortunately. I would especially have liked to see the old French compilations on the economy of the Middle East and Summerian areas in the ancient world. But, what strikes me as most important about this book is simply the lack of Anglophone access to the academic works on long-term economic history which seem to be taken for granted by French, Spanish and German speakers. How do we get not only inter-disciplinary studies but also multi-lingual studies to be given a more prominent place in Anglophone academia?
  Shira
• 
  Justin Rodger

  An empirical study of price history from 1200 to 2000 with 4 waves occurring separated by the Renaissance, the Enlightenment and the Victorian era. The main idea is original and a great lens to look at broad history through. A bit dry at times as it refers to sources and comparative studies extensively.
• 
  Vikas Erraballi

  I haven’t read the 4th Turning, because it seemed a bit too sensationalist for my taste. If my understanding of that book’s argument is correct, this one comes to similar conclusions from the prism of price waves.
  
  20+ years from time of publication, I don’t get the sense we’ve really had the blow off required to set into a new equilibrium. The statistics, Gini coefficients, don’t support it. Maybe crime or family formation show more positive trends? I don’t think they do.
  
  Which means the real crash lies ahead. And then we get a rosy decade or century. Read with ‘The Three Body Problem.’
  
  Author also suggests an agent based modeling framework without (probably) realizing it, or at least something similar. Read with Bookstaber’s ‘End of Theory’.
  
  Read with ‘The Sovereign Individual’.
  
  Then go get yourself a farm or hedge social fabric dissolution in whatever way seems best to you.
• 
  Rudyard L.

  This is easily one of the best history books of all the time. It’s the equivalent of being able to look at the machinery that propels the cycles of history. It provides a picture clear representation of the issues currently facing the modern world. It is simply revolutionary to the field of economics.
• 
  Stephen

  I really liked this book. It aims to describe the course of four great inflationary waves from the thirteenth century to the present. As it does, it presents us with a structure to the patterning that allows us to look at the familiar as well as the dissimilar aspects to each of the waves. In the view of the author, we are coming to the end of the fourth great wave, and if we follow a similar pattern to the first three, then we can take a glimpse at what may follow.
  
  There are a number of problems with this approach, mainly that history doesn't repeat itself and that the world today is very dissimilar from the thirteenth century. However, as great bouts of inflation tend to be either aided or impeded by acts of human folly, it does provide some pointers to where we should be looking. For example, a feature of the late stages to the great waves are persistently falling real wages and the growth of acute levels of wealth inequality. I guess that we tick that box. Following on from that is a period of acute social strife. I guess that we are heading in that direction too. What then follows is a crisis of some sort, followed by a period of relative calm. If the model is correct, we have that to look forward to.
  
  In the past, wars have been a catalyst for the crisis, occasioned by governments over-borrowing. That seems quite close to where we are today. The United States is engaged in a sequence of never ending wars, all funded by debt. What happens if the US were to default on its debt? The book suggests that the result wouldn't be pretty and even though I live half a world away, the fallout - possibly literally as well as metaphorically - would be felt by me. That makes me feel uncomfortable.
  
  It should be said that this is not the only grand model of historical progress. The book should be read as such. It complements other grand theories and has a place within a structure of ideas. As we live through a bout of acute inflation, it is only natural that this work will rise in importance. However, it only provides a part of the story. It says little abut productivity shifts, or investment patterns, or social relations. We need to look elsewhere for those. However, these other aspects cannot be fully understood without this inflationary backdrop. It is too important a part of the whole story.
  
  The book is a challenging read. It is not written in an academic style, but it is written by an academic. It has great scholarship, which can, at times, lead the author to being relatively obtuse. It is hard work at times, but it is worth the effort because, when enlightenment does arrive, we instinctively know that we have read something important. That's why I liked the book.
• 
  Bernard English

  ​​​
  Can't say enough good things about this important and fascinating book. And I guess neither can others--the first two pages list 30 endorsements, more than I recall printed in any book I've ever seen. The book has much theoretical value in clearly identifying four great waves (not cycles, as the author emphasizes) and seven models and/or explanations used to explain inflation: (1) monetarist (2) Malthusian (3) Marxist (4) rhythms of agricultural production (5) neoclassical economic (6) ecological and (7) historical. Since the monetarist model is perhaps one of the dominant models, I'll just point out that he debunks it as being the primary cause of inflation since the timing of inflationary periods doesn't always fit the increase in money supply very well. A great example is from the 16th century about which Fischer writes "American treasure could not have been the first cause of a price-revolution. Prices began to go up as early as 1489, many years before American silver and gold arrived in Europe."
  
  He proposes his own causal model, autogenous change which hinges on contingency and choice. Though convincing, it seems quite similar to a straight historical model. Fischer makes it clear that many models work for contemporary periods in which they were developed and not for others so they all have something valuable to add to the study of inflation.
  
  The book is far more than just a theoretical tract. Its greatest interest to me was in how the author ties price revolutions to social problems. In some sense he adds a long-term perspective and support to the conclusions of Pickett and Wilkinson's ​fantastic ​The Spirit Level: Why Equality is Better for Everyone which only looks at recent data. Some of the details are given in the ​Great Wave's ​appendices which shouldn't be missed. These include "Returns to Labor: Real Wages and Living Standards," "Measures of Wealth and Income distribution," "Price Revolution and Inequality," "Price Revolutions and Price Disintegration," and "Price Revolutions and Personal Violence." All so relevant to our times​ to our times of increasing inequality​.
  Appendix O gets back to theory with a criticism of the social scientists' obsession with theory-framing and theory-testing. In contrast, as Fischer writes, the purpose of his project is descriptive.
  
  ​I should just add that despite the long sweep of time he covers, there are plenty of fascinating details given and the book is just plain fun to read.
• 
  Hoofar

  I had this book for a while and stopped reading after the first 50 pages. It's not an exciting book to read even if you are a history nerd like me. One day, by accident, I found and read paul krugman's Pop Internationalism. And that was a super easy one-week read and made me want to go back and re-read this book. I think that's the way to read it.
  
  This is a +500 page book, heavy read with lots of plots, unique historical observations & theories to expand on each one. The original base idea is simple & makes sense: price-revolution & high inflation is (usually) followed by a war crisis until everything, including wages and prices, finds a new equilibrium. David Fischer studies Europe for the past seven centuries and identifies four of these cycles back to back and each time there is a lot of references as he tells the story. Every idea & theory by itself is generously & clearly described but he doesn't care much to explain his thought process. He is overfitting at times and there are many social, cultural and economic ideas that he overextends with too much conviction and little doubt. The connection between different ideas is missing in the book, which would probably add another 500 pages I understand but he doesn't even care to question anything he says and towards the end you'll see he has a big model with little prediction to give away.
• 
  CD

  The quantification of history.
  
  A work that covers sociology, economic, political science, and most of the social disciplines along with history. Both a weakness and a strength in this particular work.
  
  Some of the analysis is dated. The writing on inflation is overly reliant on the pre Neo-Keynesian models of the inflation phenomena. Attempts by the author to clarify the liberal/conservative trends in this crucial area are weak.
  
  The price wave (trends) as a rhythmic or cyclic (though the author tries to discount this) behavior is dependent upon overly fussy definition of time frames. If viewed over a wider range or with different statistical tools, (stats the boon and bane of modern econ) a different picture might emerge.
  
  That there exists the volume of historical data about pricing (not really costs) is the true contribution of this work. The bibliography and notes are great resources if many of the conclusions drawn have flaws.
  
  Could have been a much better and more readable work with minor alterations. This type of analysis has a a tendency to become quickly dated. The data and historical records are not the problem, just the details of the conclusions.
• 
  Andy C.

  First, don't be put off by the thickness of the book. The narrative is in the first half. Second, it is always a good practice to study the table of contents first, moreso with this fine book. Then read it and be amazed.
• 
  Nico

  A brilliant book, I have seldome read one book which is so eye opening. It is probably one of the best book to understand the deep mechanics of history,poltics and society. A must read for everyone who wants to comprehend the world.
• 
  David

  An excellent review of price waves and their impact on history.
  
  Perhaps a bit esoteric for the general reader but deeply informative.
  
  Rating: 5 out of 5
• 
  Gregg Wingo

  I have been reading Dr. Fischer for almost thirty years since his work, "Historians' Fallacies: Toward a Logic of Historical Thought" was assigned by Dr. Baumgartner in my historical methods class at Virginia Tech. Quite frankly Fischer's "Albion's Seed' is one of the finest American history books for both professional and amateur historians in the 20th century. "The Great Wave" should hold the same position for students of economics and represents the best empirical attack on academic economic theories that I have read since Steve Keen's "Debunking Economics".
  
  However, the book not only attacks economics but the social sciences in general in the United States due to their choice of theory over data. By statistical analysis of historical data Fischer refutes criminology's position on the origins of crime, sociological and ideological explanations for family disintegration, and the free market positions of the Chicago School of economics.
  
  The analysis reveals the following historical facts regarding free markets:
  
  1) Long-term equilibrium occurs over extended periods of time - centuries not decades.
  2) Equilibrium is unstable.
  3) Free markets are a rarity.
  
  He also establishes seven types of inflation: expansion of the money supply, increases in aggregate demand, supply shocks due to extraneous events, supply shocks due to human manipulation, cost-push inflation, bubble-inflation, and inflationary expectations. What Fischer determines from the analysis is that the impact of these types of inflation is different given the historical conditions under which they interact. What can be catastrophic in one section of the wave pattern has no or limited effect on another point of it. The author essential refutes the absolutism of Monetarist theory on inflation, supports Malthusian dynamics of population and resource limits, confirms the Keynesian position on aggregate demand and aggregate supply forces, and proves the Minskian position on irrational expectations due to the limited historical basis in human perceptions. He also reflects on the teleological limits of Marxism and the positive impact of Fordism on the period of price revolution in the 20th century.
  
  While Dr. Fischer strongly cautions against history as a predictive science, in 1996, he has the following to say about our contemporary times:
  
  "The end of the story has not been written. It could end in many different ways. So fragile were the major trends that contingencies of various kinds threatened to disrupt them. A major war in the Middle East or eastern Europe or some other trouble spot could reignite inflation. A collapse of overvalued security markets could cause panic, depression and deep deflation. In a time of crisis, when so many possibilities were hanging in the narrow balance, much depended on the wisdom of our choices. Wise choices in turn required intelligent leaders and informed electorates. But intelligence and wisdom and even the information that we need most were not in evidence in national capitals throughout the world. As the great wave of the twentieth century approached its climax, the condition of many nations called to mind a Melville novel, or perhaps a Masefield poem. The ship of state raced onward, through high seas and heavy weather. All sails were set, and her helm was lashed to the course that she had long been steering. On the quarterdeck, several parties of myopic navigators squinted dimly at the dark clouds behind them. Somewhere below was their amiable captain, who wanted mainly to be loved by his sullen crew. The first-class passengers amused themselves in their opulent cabins, knowing little of the suffering in steerage, and nothing of the dangers that surrounded them. On deck amidships, a lone bookish traveler turned his collar against the wind, leaned precariously across the lee rail, and tried to read the signs in the sky."
  
  Like all good history there is both analysis and beauty in "The Great Wave" and much for us to consider as we ride our way into a new era, one that Fischer feels will be some intellectual equivalent of the High Middle Ages or the Renaissance or the Enlightenment or the Victorian Age and an end to our Postmodern malaise.
• 
  Jim Good

  The book analyizes inflation and returns to labor and capital from the 14th century to today and draws the conclusion that there are repeated wave cycles in history that begin, crest and terminate in the same maner with increasing lengths and magnitudes. Well researched and does a good job in explaining the nature and sources of the data used. The wave cycle begins in subtle rises in commodity pricing led in magnitude by rents and land, followed by fuel, food and commodity production in decreasing magnitude. During this wave formation increases in the return to capital are found and declining real wages. During the second stage wage inflation begins and return to labor are greatest driving more equal distribution of wealth. This is followed by a period of high volitility in prices where returns to capital are again the greatest and increases in the rate of crime and unwed births increase as real wages fall. Lastly an equalibrium is established and prices stabilize for extended periods and wealth distribution evens out.
• 
  Christian

  A really interesting take on long periods of boom followed by periods of collapse or at least social upheaval. Fisher does a remarkable job of breathing life into the otherwise musty history of price inflation. He's not talking about brief periods of double digit inflation that have cropped up in the 20th century (like the US in the 1970's or Argentina in the 1990's). He describes decades long periods where price inflation became the norm. So much so that generations never thought life could be any other way. In many ways these periods are unusual for their societal stability. It's the periods of price collapse that really transform societies (think plague riddled Europe in the 14th century or the French Revolution). For anyone on the Ron Paul train or ECB-ers that think inflation is the scariest thing on the horizon you should reevaluate the very real downside risk of a bond market collapse.
• 
  Tanya Hurst

  Overall, it was great information. However, an an anthropologically-minded archaeologist, the book would have been much better if it had covered a lot more of the cultural aspects of price revolutions. Some stuff was mentioned, but barely in my opinion. It's good information to know if you are a nerd :) and like this sort of thing like I do, but it still would have had more "oomph" if it had included more social history rather than just economic markets and pricing, which to me, was presented in a relative vacuum. I did learn a lot, though, "inflationary psychology" being one of those terms I can now use to describe a situation I've perceived all along - YAY! Good times!. My partner and friends will be thrilled to hear me rant about this one now. :)
• 
  Steve

  In the context of what is happening right now in the world, this is a fascinating read that puts it all into context. The book was written in the mid-1990s, and I would love to read a 2009 version. Many of the author's observations are spot on:'hubris' followed by 'nemesis'. The rise in crime and drug abuse in times of inflation. It seems that society experiences 'waves' of stable periods followed by unstable periods. The conclusion I reach is that we are entering an extremely period of instability, to be caused by a massive inflation caused by government borrowing, population growth and climate change. This book really is a 'must read' for all students of the financial crisis.
• 
  Jamon

  This book shows how changes in prices impact society. Very interesting read, well researched, 300 pages of Talmadge-like footnotes. The author is not in favor of free markets or welfare economics. While reading it I was impressed with the timeliness of the restoration (this is not an LDS book), and I think it explains why so many anglo-saxons are related to someone who was important back in the Middle ages...the wealthy were the only ones who had enough resources to survive plagues, wars, crisis etc.
  I recommend this book to anyone who is interested in politics and economics.
• 
  Tim

  A marvelous information dump; the bibliographical essay is a wonder, and a formidable portion of the volume. I intend to pull up deep fistfuls of rich Malthusian muck. My primers, Braudel and Hamilton, are old hat these days, I understand. But those fellas really sweat for it. Lifted the iron until they were red in the face. Combed patiently through obsolete weights and measures systems in rural Iberia only to hazy support of their theses. Fischer gets to generalize Price Revolutions Happen And Are Important. LUCKYYYYY.